The End Of Iran?

Alessandro Pioltelli ’26

The last few months have been a tumultuous time for Iran and the authoritarian, theocratic regime that has governed it since 1979. Rampant inflation has devastated the nation’s economy, which hasn’t been able to rely on oil exports to keep it stable due to sanctions imposed by the Trump administration. 

By early December, the Iranian rial had plummeted to its lowest value ever, exchanging at a rate of 1.25 million rials per USD, according to Reuters, which it still maintains to this day. To put it in context, the exchange rate was at 42,000 rials a mere five years ago, and had stayed so for years before that as well. This extreme inflation, coupled with the country’s ongoing energy crisis, corruption, and geopolitical instability, led to protests breaking out in late December and officially continuing until January 21st, when Iran’s prosecutor general said they had been suppressed, even though smaller-scale protests are still ongoing. 

These protests weren't just the biggest in the 47-year-history of the Islamic Republic, but also the most deadly. While the official casualty count provided by their government sits at 3,317 people, news sources independent from the purview of Iran have the count in the tens of thousands, with Iran International estimating it at 36,500 victims after obtaining and reviewing ‘classified documents, field reports, and accounts from medical staff.’ Although data has been hard to get, given the near-total shutdown of the internet by the government, it’s clear that the situation unfolding in Iran is dire. 

Enter the United States, which has been pursuing a far more aggressive foreign policy under Donald Trump. Besides the opposition to Iran’s crushing of dissent via the mass murder of protestors, fears of continued nuclear weapons development by Iran, and a general desire to topple the oppressive regime have prompted the Pentagon to send a second aircraft carrier to the region, joining thousands of troops already stationed there and dozens of other military ships and aircraft. The U.S. military has been actively preparing for the possibility of a weeks-long campaign in Iran, which could target state facilities and not just nuclear infrastructure, if the president gives the order to attack. 

This increased military presence and planning for an operation is despite the fact that negotiations with Iranian officials on their nuclear weapons program are set to be held in Geneva on February 17th, sending mixed messages to the public as to what the true intentions of the U.S. government are regarding Iran. The military operation in Venezuela conducted last month, which removed its dictatorial president, Nicolas Maduro, complicates things even further, as the Trump administration has shown a willingness to militarily interfere with other countries and set a precedent as to what that could entail. Coincidentally, (or so it seems) both Venezuela and Iran have large oil reserves, which surely plays a role in determining what the best course of action is. 

Trump himself has also given mixed messaging regarding Iran. He’s said that he supports regime change, which would require direct military action/intervention, but also that his preference was to reach a deal with them, at the same time, it being “hard to do.” 

All the while, he’s threatened multiple times to strike the country with missiles following the massacre of protesters, which turned out to be a bluff. As is unfortunately the case with Trump and most senile old men, what position he holds is unclear, but looking at the past, an attack seems the more likely option. After the U.S.’s operation in Venezuela, another military excursion into a foreign country doesn’t seem that far-fetched, especially under Trump’s malignant leadership. 

The bigger question, however, is whether an invasion be able to bring about the end of the ruinous Islamic Republic of Iran? Is such an invasion even possible? 

Iran is no Venezuela. The country has the ability to retaliate heavily with its arsenal of missiles, on top of a large standing army. While in the long run it would be no match compared to the United States, it would be a costly and long-term endeavor that could destabilize Iran even further than it already has been. However, this likely isn’t being considered in the administration that prioritizes ‘America First’ above anything else. 

As previously mentioned, the country's oil reserves give incentive to the United States to simply exploit the country for profit, as unlike Venezuela, which has mostly heavy oil reserves which requires specialized refinement and processing to be turned into usable fuel, Iran’s oil reserves are the conventional and ‘normal’ type, which the Trump administration would definitely take an interest in controlling if the Iranian government is toppled. 

But at the end of the day, the issue with the United States intervening in Iran is just that- it’s intervention. The U.S. already faced heavy criticism for its operation in Venezuela, and while it most likely wouldn't go down that path in Iran, that moment showed the world that this is how the U.S. plans to act militarily and diplomatically. Although the political and economic status of Iran is so disastrous that there’s an argument to be made for forcefully ending the religiously radical authoritarian regime that has plagued the country for nearly half a century, the United States- or rather, the Trump administration- shouldn’t be allowed to give itself the right to invade a foreign country simply because it’s the United States. 

The Iranian government’s brutal and horrific crackdown on dissidents in the last two months shows that its leaders will do whatever it takes to hold on to power, making it likely that only outside intervention could actually topple the country’s government. However, the United States being the one to topple an anti-democratic, religiously extreme regime while being led by people who are also anti-democratic and religiously extreme (albeit to a lesser extent) is certainly ironic. 

Iran doesn’t have a particularly extensive democratic history or any long-standing democratic institutions, making it unclear whether removing the government from power would not just repeat the cycle and lead to another authoritarian regime taking hold. While a U.S. invasion and the end of Iran is up in the air, there is one thing that’s clear here - Iran’s future is looking grim.

Author’s Note: This was written before the joint strikes conducted on Iran by the United States and Israel. I have chosen to keep the piece unrevised as I believe its main points still remain valid even though the circumstances have changed.