A Full Guide to the 2026 World Cup - Part 1: Overview and Euro/FIFA Playoff Predictions

Nickolas Cielo ’29

The World Cup frenzy is officially underway. On Friday, December 5, the FIFA World Cup Draw took place at The Kennedy Center in Washington D.C. This decided the fate for the 42 countries (and 6 yet to qualify) in the group stage, deciding their three opponents. 

The FIFA World Cup is a soccer (football) tournament held every four years where the best countries in the world battle it out in a tournament that paralyzes the world (in a good way). The countries’ national teams first go through a qualifying round prior to the World Cup. These qualifying rounds are put together based on the confederation, determined by the continent in which the country resides (except Antarctica). After qualifying, a ceremony is held in which groups of four are put together using an algorithm, where they will face the other national teams in their group once (also, the points system is: WIN (3 pts), DRAW (1 pt for both teams), LOSS (0 pts). After the group stage, the top 2 teams with the most points (and the 8 best third-place teams, which is decided by points and goal difference) advance to a bracket system, in which they are matched with opponents, culminating in a final between the 2 best countries at the tournament. In 2022, the world cup final broke the record for the most streamed event ever, with approximately 1.5 billion viewers globally and 5 billion people engaged with the tournament. It is a testament to the popularity of the beautiful game and goes to show how important it is to the world. This year, the World Cup Final will come to us! The World Cup Final will be played at the Metlife Stadium, New Jersey/New York.

Important to note: I will often refer to teams as “less” or “high/higher” quality. A national team that is less quality is a country that has lower quality players, facilities, recourses, money, experience, practice, management, administration, or has historically been regarded as weaker, or has accomplished less than other countries. Never do I intend to disregard countries or call them “weak” in a diminishing sense, they are just the facts and the reality.

Now that we have the basics covered, we can get to this year’s FIFA World Cup Group Stage.

The official drawn groups are as following:

Group A: Mexico, South Korea, South Africa, and Euro. Playoff D (the winner of Denmark, Ireland, Czech Republic, or North Macedonia);

Group B: Canada, Qatar, Switzerland, and Euro. Playoff A (the winner of Bosnia and Herzegovina, Italy, Wales, or Northern Ireland);

Group C: Haiti, Morocco, Brazil, and Scotland;

Group D: United States, Australia, Paraguay, and Euro. Playoff C (the winner of Slovakia, Kosovo, Turkiye, or Romania);

Group E: Curacao, Ivory Coast, Ecuador, and Germany;

Group F: Japan, Tunisia, Netherlands, and Euro. Playoff B (the winner of Ukraine, Poland, Albania, or Sweden);

Group G: Iran, Egypt, New Zealand, and Belgium;

Group H: Saudi Arabia, Cape Verde, Uruguay, and Spain;

Group I: Senegal, France, Norway, and FIFA Playoff 2 (the winner of Bolivia, Iraq, or Suriname);

Group J: Jordan, Algeria, Argentina, and Austria;

Group K: Uzbekistan, Colombia, Portugal, and FIFA Playoff 1 (the winner of Jamaica, Democratic Republic of the Congo, or New Caledonia); and

Group L: Panama, Ghana, England, and Croatia.

Before I get to my Euro/FIFA Playoff predictions, it is important to address what “FIFA/Euro Playoffs” are. When I said that all 48 countries would know their groups, I didn’t address the 6 countries yet to qualify. When a country misses automatic qualification, FIFA puts them in a bracket system with other countries who failed to qualify automatically. They go through this playoff and if they prevail above the other teams in the playoff, they get a spot in the World Cup. 

My predictions for the FIFA/Euro Playoffs are as following:

Euro. Playoff A: This playoff bracket features 4 time World Cup winners, Italy, three time qualifiers Northern Ireland, 2 time qualifiers Wales, and 1 time qualifier Bosnia and Herzegovina.

On paper, Italy should cruise to qualification, but they should be cautious. Italy is no stranger to missing out on qualifying for the World Cup. They have failed to qualify for the past two World Cups, often being shocked by underdogs in the playoffs, and now face the possibility of not qualifying again. Despite their poor track record recently, Italy now faces their best chance to qualify since 2014, since they face teams who are significantly less quality than them. Italy’s current team has more than enough quality to get through, but they should be wary of only one team, Wales. Wales, who recently were featured in the 2022 World Cup, are back, eager to qualify for their second straight World Cup. They feature the likes of Spurs sensation Brennan Johnson, Nottingham Forest defender Neco Williams, Tottenham defender Ben Davies, among others. They are undergoing a generational transition, with young stars emerging throughout the world. As for Bosnia and Herzegovina and Northern Ireland, they shouldn’t be ruled out entirely, but they would need a miracle to beat one of the two giants who are poised to clash in the final of the playoff. 

My final prediction for the Euro. Playoff A: Part of me wants to say Wales, but the logical thing to say is Italy, and that is what I predict. I predict The Azzurri to qualify for their first World Cup in 8 years, as they have a favorable playoff bracket and a strong overall team. Missing out on another World Cup would be disastrous for Italy, given the current circumstances. Seeing Italy at a World Cup will be refreshing after their long absence, and I expect them to be warmly received back at the World Cup.

Euro. Playoff B: This playoff bracket was by far the toughest to predict, and I wouldn’t be surprised if my prediction is wrong, or shifts, as we get closer to March, when the playoffs happen. This bracket features football powerhouse Poland, brawling Ukraine, potential shockers Albania, and challengers Sweden. All of these teams have the full right to believe that they can snatch the qualification, considering the near level playing field of quality among these teams.

Poland’s best shot at qualifying is through their main man, Robert Lewandowski. The 37 year old veteran striker for Poland continues getting better, with no signs of stopping. Partnered with other elite Polish players, he can deliver Poland their much deserved qualification. Ukraine’s national team has had rather rough times recently. They haven’t played a single game at home since 2022, following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Despite this, Ukraine has proven to be resilient, winning many games despite not having home advantage. Ukrainian players like Andriy Lunin, Artem Dovbyk, and others have proven to be key to Ukraine’s cause, and they should have what it takes to get through. Sweden enters this playoff bracket as a potential shocker, considering the quality of their squad despite poor recent form. They performed horribly during the normal qualification stage, not winning a single game, just barely scraping a playoff spot. Sweden should not be underestimated though, they have top players like Alexander Isak and Viktor Gyokeres who can deliver on the world stage. Though qualification seems tough, it is not impossible. And last but not least, Albania’s team is definitely the weakest of these 3 other countries. They don’t possess the flashy star players like Ukraine, Poland, and Sweden, but they have proven to be giant killers. In the past, they’ve proven to put up fights against top European teams, even winning sometimes. They’re certainly not out of the equation, but a lot of giant killing would need to happen for them to qualify.

My final prediction for the Euro. Playoff B: I wouldn’t be surprised if this prediction doesn’t stand the test of time, but I predict Poland to qualify for the World Cup. I was really torn between picking them and Ukraine, but considering all of the factors that play into this, I gave the slight edge to Poland. I expect their main man, Lewandowski, to deliver for his country once again and qualify them for another World Cup. Other than Lewandowski, I don’t see any other player who can step up for the team, which makes them a risky prediction. Only time will tell if I end up being right.

Euro. Playoff C: This playoff bracket is one of the easier ones to predict, although there is one team that could disrupt everything. It features upsets Slovakia, newcomers Kosovo, heavyweights Turkiye, and unpredictable Romania. There are really only two teams who can aspire to the qualification, and it is awfully good that they are on opposite sides of the bracket, and are poised to meet in the playoff final.

Two countries, Turkiye and Slovakia are most likely to secure qualification. Notably, Slovakia has produced upsets lately, beating the likes of Germany not too long ago. They have a well rounded team, with many players playing in top European leagues and good chemistry among themselves. Anything less than qualification for Turkiye would be a complete failure. They possess a young, aspiring team with the likes of Arda Guler, Kenan Yildiz, Can Uzun, among others. Turkiye have proven themselves to be heavyweights in Europe, putting up good fights against superior teams and every now and then, upsetting better countries. They also have the experienced player, Hakan Calhanoglu, who serves as a wise mentor to the young squad. They should be aiming for qualification, and a dignified run at the World Cup. As for Romania, they have proven themselves to be able to take on larger teams, recently making a good effort at the 2024 Euros, but they haven’t done much since. They would need to find that form again if they want a fair chance at qualifying. And Kosovo, I don’t expect much. This is the first time they’ve secured a playoff spot in their history, so they have a reason for hope. They are by far the weakest of all of these teams and I don’t see a path for them to qualify, let alone win against Slovakia in the first round of the playoff. 

My final prediction for the Euro. Playoff C: I predict Turkiye to glide through the playoffs and qualify for the World Cup. The only team that can put up a fight against them is Slovakia, but I don’t see them succeeding in that effort. Turkiye really got blessed by this playoff draw, and I would be shocked if they don’t take advantage of it. Sorry Romania and Kosovo, now isn’t your time.

Euro. Playoff D: This playoff bracket is full of underdogs. North Macedonia, who famously shocked Italy, eliminating them from the 2022 World Cup, now seek qualification themselves. Other teams in this bracket include Denmark, who have an aging and experienced team that aims to qualify for their third consecutive World Cup; Ireland, who can produce upsets and put up a fight; and lastly, the Czech Republic, who have proven to be sturdy in defense.

The 2022 fairytale run of North Macedonia at the World Cup playoffs will not repeat itself. Since that 2022 shocker over Italy, North Macedonia has struggled to harness that moment and improve, making them not as viable to qualify this time around. Denmark has an aging squad, which should sound the alarms of every Danish fan right now. That, paired with their poor form, recently makes them vulnerable to other, weaker teams. On paper, they have the strongest team and most experience, but they lack the spark to compete with younger squads. Ireland has been on fire recently, even beating World Cup favorite Portugal. With Troy Parrot in attack, they should be considered a strong team to get past this playoff bracket, despite not having the easiest run to the qualification. Last but not least, we have the Czech Republic. DO NOT SLEEP ON THEM! They are the dark horses in this bracket, with an electric squad. Their main man, Patrik Schick, has proven that he can lead them to success, and they could do the same this time around. This playoff bracket is extremely cagy, and I wouldn’t be surprised if any of these teams ends up qualifying.

My final prediction for the Euro. Playoff D: This prediction could very well be wrong, and it could age VERY poorly, but I predict Ireland to qualify for the World Cup. Yes, I know, an upset. I just think that Ireland have something, I have a gut feeling they will qualify. Troy Parrot will guide them to a shocking qualification, and it will be beautiful to see them at the World Cup. I know I said that the Czech Republic are the dark horses here, but I don’t expect them to make it all the way. Maybe in 2030, but not now. This bracket is really cagy, and I expect it to be extremely competitive. I still stand by this prediction, although it could very well be wrong.

FIFA Playoff 1: This playoff features a rising Jamaica, dark horses Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), and shockers New Caledonia. Apart from New Caledonia, the two other teams have seen a meteoric rise in the past few years. Jamaica went from one of the laughing stocks of Concacaf, to a dangerous, counter-attacking team with immense quality. Similarly, the DRC went from being a weaker side in Africa, to a competitive team that can produce upsets. 

There isn’t much to analyze for New Caledonia. The expanded 48 team format at the World Cup played a big role in their playoff position. Of all of the teams in the World Cup and potential teams, New Caledonia is the weakest in the FIFA rankings, sitting at a miserable 149th place. I’m willing to bet everything that they won’t qualify. Success for them would be, well … scoring a goal. DRC has been on a meteoric rise. They’ve recently beaten African giants Nigeria and Cameroon, solidifying their status as a rising footballing nation. Their defense makes them a team hard to penetrate, which could prove tricky for Jamaica. As for them, Jamaica has also seen a rise in quality. They have quality players like Leon Bailey and Michail Antonio, making them formidable in attack. They’ve proven to be difficult to beat, bringing the fight to superior Concacaf teams. The likely showdown between the DRC and Jamaica will be a close one, and I wouldn’t be surprised if either team wins the spot at the World Cup.

My final prediction for the FIFA Playoff 1: Africa’s upward trend will continue, as I expect the DRC  to secure qualification to their second ever World Cup. I was close to picking Jamaica, but Africa has had an upwards streak, with many of their teams in the World Cup, and I expect it to continue. Their solid defense partnered with youth in attack is a deadly combo, and I don’t think Jamaica has what it takes to counter that, despite having quality in their team. I could very well be wrong, but recent history suggests that African countries are due for success. 

FIFA Playoff 2: This playoff bracket features a host of shockers who seek qualification. Bolivia, who has been absent from the World Cup since 1994, now has a chance of qualifying after a win that positioned them in a playoff spot, just ahead of Venezuela. Iraq, who hasn’t appeared at all since 1986, has been slowly climbing the ranks in the Middle East, especially during this year’s Arab Cup. They are looking to be a formidable team in the region, but who knows if that will translate into a World Cup spot. And lastly, Suriname, who has never participated in a FIFA World Cup, will make an appearance. This bracket features one newcomer and two absentees for a long time, so whoever ends up qualifying will make history and make headlines in the football world. 

To be honest, here isn't much to talk about. All of these teams, generally speaking, are lower quality teams. I don’t see a viable path for any of them to get past the group stage. Bolivia barely scraped into the playoffs, getting past Venezuela. Iraq has just recently come into relevance through the Arab Cup. And Suriname has proven to be able to beat Central American heavyweights, but doesn’t have the quality to compete against other confederation teams. 

My final prediction for the FIFA Playoff 2: I am very split between picking Iraq and Bolivia, but I will give Bolivia a slight edge. I think that their recent form, in which they beat Brazil and held their ground against other teams, is just what they need in preparation for their likely game against Iraq. Spirits are high among the Bolivian team, and I expect those high spirits to translate to a qualification to the World Cup. Seeing Bolivia at a World Cup, for the first time in 31 years will be monumental for Bolivia, and their people.

Note: This World Cup series will be broken up into multiple issues. Until the end of the year, I will be covering the World Cup and making my predictions. As time goes on, my predictions will become more solid and final. In the last issue of the school year, I will make my final predictions.

If you’ve read this far, I’ll let you in on a sneak peak of the next issue: Team Strength, Rankings, and Reacting to my World Cup Playoff Predictions.