A Geopolitical Cascade: What the Iran War means In Terms of Environmental Conditions

Calder Wysong ’27

The 2026 Iran War has undoubtedly been something on everyone’s minds within the political sphere as of late. As Bard students, we often find ourselves looking at these events in the mainstream media and wondering what it could mean for us from the perspective of a number of issues, but a relatively unexplored one is how the 2026 Iran War has affected us environmentally. In the short timeframe that the war has undergone, the environmental impacts have been catastrophic–not just within the frame of the warzone itself, but as an alarming hindrance to climate efforts worldwide. And, if left unchecked and unheard of, these environmental concerns will undoubtedly prove to be devastating.

What’s first worth pointing out is the fact that, even within the little time that the war has been active, the sheer scope of the climate concerns has already skyrocketed. Iran itself has already been considered a focal point for a number of previous environmental concerns. Even prior to President Trump’s operation against the country, the region faced a severe five-year long drought, declining rainfall and resulting in one of the driest periods in over 50 years. The capital city of Tehran and the surrounding region, especially affected by this drought, had water reservoirs falling to 12 percent of their usual capacity, according to the Center for American Progress. Moreover, many of the environmental conditions which once fueled the region’s overall water supply have diminished. Snowmelt from the Alborz and Zagros mountains, a centuries-old source of water for Iran, has steadily declined due to rising global temperatures. A 2023 heatwave only exacerbated these conditions, which raised regional climates to an alarming 123 degrees Fahrenheit. It’s very clear that the extenuating conditions within Iran, even prior to the war, were already evidence of the impending climate disaster within the Middle East.

Following President Trump’s decision to initiate Operation Epic Fury, the military campaign to degrade Iran’s military capacities, the circumstances surrounding Iran’s climate have only been exacerbated in their intensity and widespread damage. In fact, one of the war’s defining qualities  has been its incredibly dangerous effects within the short time that it has been conducted. According to the Columbia Climate School, the war in Ukraine led to the emission of nearly 77 million tons of carbon dioxide within the first year and a half of conflict. This sort of statistic can paint a distressing picture to which the war in Iran can begin to be understood in the instance of a prolonged conflict. One of the primary factors in the war that has exacerbated Iran’s already well-established climate crisis is the missile strikes conducted by the United States onto Iran’s multitude of oil facilities, chemical plants, and other forms of civilian infrastructure. There are currently around 300 recorded incidents of potential environmental damage documented across 12 countries in the Middle East, most of them concentrated within Tehran and the Gulf Coast. These points of infrastructure, when bombed, can lead to toxic residues contaminating soil and water supplies. Of course, this is devastating on multiple levels–both for plant and animal life. At the present moment, the city of Tehran has essentially become a standstill. Even in the nearly three months that this armed conflict has been active for, these are devastating conditions, both through a humanitarian lens and an environmental one.

Yet, what’s important to remember is that this war isn’t just being fought on an environmental scale through direct attack. It’s also a substantial financial crisis that has resulted in a significant advantage for big oil companies. The conflict, by itself, has resulted in an energy shock of devastating proportions, primarily due to the bombings conducted along the Strait of Hormuz, an integral trade route for Iran. However, these circumstances have resulted in energy prices–and, by proxy, the earnings of large oil corporations–to skyrocket. According to The Guardian, ConocoPhillips, a petroleum industry company, generated 2.3 billion dollars in profit within the first three months of 2026, up a staggering 84% since the beginning of the Iran conflict. Other companies showed similar quarterly estimates, such as Valero energy generating 1.2 billion dollars in income. On the consumer side of things, Americans across the country are suffering from these increases in oil cost. As of Wednesday, May 6, gasoline soared to 4.52 dollars per gallon. One thing is clear in all of these statistics–the crisis of supply and demand that has accompanied the environmental circumstances plaguing Iran. This war has been framed as something that ought to be beneficial for American society, yet, in every facet of life, it’s proven to be a hindrance. While it may seem that, as students, there’s very little we can do in order to resolve such a conflict, it’s still undoubtedly important to be aware of these issues if we intend to see any kind of resolution in the first place. And, ideally, that means a better way of resolving this conflict that doesn’t mean putting a strain on our planet or our already fragile environmental circumstances.